Turkey is negotiating to transfer its Russian-made S-400 air defense systems to the UAE as part of a push to get back into the F-35 program, according to American and regional officials familiar with the talks, first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
The US kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program in 2019 after Ankara bought the S-400s from Russia. Washington's concern was straightforward: running both systems simultaneously on Turkish soil could allow Russian technology to scan the F-35's radar signature and feed that data back to Moscow.
The talks are happening right after Trump visited Turkey earlier this month for the NATO summit, where he publicly said he intends to lift the restrictions blocking Ankara from buying the American fighters. Trump has treated Erdogan as a key partner on both Middle East diplomacy and the Russia-Ukraine war.
The UAE has its own motivation for the deal. Iranian drones and missiles struck Gulf states during this year's conflicts, and Abu Dhabi is looking to strengthen its air defenses. The UAE also had its own frozen F-35 deal with the US, stalled for five years now.
The arrangement faces serious obstacles. Turkey needs Russia's explicit approval to re-export the S-400s. The UAE would likely need a green light from both Moscow and Washington to accept the system without triggering a diplomatic crisis with either side. Turkey would also need a formal US guarantee that F-35s are coming before it hands anything over.
Congress passed the sanctions that got Turkey removed from the program in the first place, and some lawmakers still oppose letting Ankara back in. Several cite Israel's objections, with Tel Aviv worried a Turkish F-35 sale would erode its air superiority in the Middle East. Democratic Representative Dina Titus of Nevada, vice chair of the Congressional Hellenic Caucus, signed a letter on July 6 opposing Turkey's reinstatement specifically because of what she called its "aggressive stance toward Greece and Cyprus."
An analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute put it plainly: Ankara's rhetoric has done a 180, but whether that turns into a fast agreement is a separate question entirely.
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