The NATO Summit in Ankara on July 7 is set to accelerate a shift in European security that analysts say could quietly st...

The NATO Summit in Ankara on July 7 is set to accelerate a shift in European security that analysts say could quietly strengthen Turkey's hand over Cyprus. As the United States moves to reduce its military footprint in Europe, European nations will be expected to carry more of the security burden, and that makes Turkey, which holds NATO's second-largest military, significantly harder to sideline. Senior Policy Advisor Ino Afentouli of the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign and European Policy told the Cyprus Mail that the change would not hit Cyprus directly in military terms, but the indirect effects could be serious. As Washington steps back, NATO members outside the EU, particularly Turkey, become more strategically valuable to the alliance, and that added weight tends to translate into political leverage. On the Cyprus problem specifically, Afentouli was clear that Ankara's influence over the island operates through politics, not military force. Turkey would use any enhanced standing within NATO to shape the political process around a Cyprus settlement, not to mount military pressure. She described any scenario in which Cyprus joins NATO as "highly ambitious" under current conditions, noting that even a limited partnership arrangement would require unanimous member approval, including from Turkey. Turkey would only consent to Cyprus joining NATO, she said, if it saw concrete advantages within a broader settlement framework. That means any movement toward closer NATO ties for Cyprus is effectively tied to resolving the Cyprus problem itself, including the withdrawal of Turkish troops and agreement on new security guarantees. The only actor she named as capable of pushing all parties toward such an outcome is the United States, which is simultaneously the one power pulling back from the region. The EU is also under growing pressure to formalize deeper defense cooperation with powerful non-EU NATO allies. That list includes Turkey, which several EU member states already consider essential to European defense given its military size and geographic position. #Cyprus #NATO #Turkey